Abstract
This study attempts to evaluate the impact of massive infectious and contagious diseases (coronavirus) and its final impact on the economic performance anywhere and anytime. We are considering to evaluate the case of nigeria. We are taking in consideration the case of Wuhan coronavirus to be evaluated under a domestic, national, and international level impact. In this study, we also propose a new simulator to evaluate the impact of massive infections and contagious diseases on the economic performance subsequently. The stationarity of the variables were tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. The ordinary least square (OLS) multiple regression, equation estimation, Johansen multivariate cointegration and Granger Causality analytical techniques were the econometric methods used to analyze the data.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
- background to the study
In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness is emerging caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (named “2019-nCoV”) that was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and which continues to expand. Chinese health officials have reported tens of thousands of infections with 2019-nCoV in China, with the virus reportedly spreading from person-to-person in parts of that country. Infections with 2019-nCoV, most of them associated with travel from Wuhan, also are being reported in a growing number of international locations. At the time of this writing, Worldometer1 reported 28,726 confirmed 2019-nCoV incidents of which 3,826 are in critical condition, 565 died, and 1,170 recovered, affecting 28 countries and territories around the world (Worldometer, 2020).
WHO is estimated that the novel coronavirus’ case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2 percent (WHO, 2020), substantially lower than Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS (34 percent) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS (10 percent)(Worldometer, 2020). The incubation period of the virus may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 (World Health Organization (WHO): 2-10 days; China’s National Health Commission (NHC): 2-14 days; The United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 10-14 days), during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission). All population groups can be infected by the 2019-nCoV, however, seniors and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.
2019-nCoV infected patients are the main infection sources. However, we also should attach importance to asymptomatic cases which may play a critical role in the transmission process. Respiratory droplets and contact are the main transmission routes. Close contact with symptomatic cases and asymptomatic cases with silent infection are the main transmission routes of 2019-nCoV infection in children. People of all ages are susceptible to 2019-nCoV. The elderly and those with underlying chronic diseases are more likely to become severe cases. Thus far, all pediatric cases with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection were mild cases, and no deaths had been reported.
Based on the current epidemiological data, the incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections ranges from 1 to 14 days, mostly ranging from 3 to 7 days. Current reported data of pediatric cases revealed that the age of disease onset ranged from 1.5 months to 17 years, most of whom had a close contact with infected cases or were family cluster cases. Infected children might appear asymptomatic or present with fever, dry cough, and fatigue, and few have upper respiratory symptoms including nasal congestion and running nose; some patients presented with gastrointestinal symptoms including abdominal discomfort, nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, and diarrhea.
Most infected children have mild clinical manifestations. They have no fever or symptoms of pneumonia with a good prognosis. Most of them recover within 1–2 weeks after disease onset. Few may progress to lower respiratory infections. No newborns delivered by 2019-nCoV infected mothers have been detected positive; and no newborn cases have been reported yet. It should be noted that clinical manifestations in pediatric patients should be further defined after collecting more pediat- ric case data. Furthermore, the number of confirmed infected cases will increase after a wide use of pathogen analysis.
Data from adults reveal that severe cases often develop dyspnea one week after disease onset. Severe cases may rap- idly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), septic shock, refractory metabolic acidosis, and coagulation dysfunction. Although no deaths in children have been reported up to now, the potential risk of death should be highlighted. Though clinical symptoms in pediatric patients are relatively milder compared with those in adult patients, ARDS and death cases also occurred in infected children during the SARS and MERS epidemics. Differential diagnosis should be made to distinguish from influenza virus, para-influenza virus, adenovirus, respira- tory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus, SARS coronavirus, and other known viral infections, as well as mycoplasma pneumoniae and chlamydia pneumo- nia and bacterial pneumonia. The coinfection of 2019-nCoV with other viruses and/or bacteria should be considered in diagnosis.
Beyond the public health impacts of regional or global emerging and endemic infectious disease events lay wider socioeconomic consequences that are often not considered in risk or impact assessments. Endemic infectious deseases set in motion a complex chain of events in the economy. They are rare and extreme events, highly diverse and volatile over time and across countries. Estimating terrorism risk depends upon several factors that varied by the type of activity. The idiosyncratic nature of endemic infectious deseases is based, among others, on the magnitude and duration of the event, the size and state of the local economy, the geographical locations affected, the population density and the time of the day they occurred. If the calculation of costs associated with death loss, chronically ill cattle marketed prematurely at a discount, and treatment are are readily traceable. the estimation of indirect costs such as reduced performance of the local labor force and/or the impact on the international travel and trade can be an onerous task.
1.2 Statement of problem
Considering that Coronavirus disease spreads primarily through contact with an infected person when they cough or sneeze. It also spreads when a person touches a surface or object that has the virus on it, then touches their eyes, nose, or mouth.
This study formulates an analytical framework for estimating the economic consequences of endemic infectious disease both in terms of immediate policy response in the aftermath of the desease and of medium-term policy implications for regulatory and fiscal policy. The Integral Massive Infections and Contagious Diseases Economic Simulator (IMICDE-Simulator) – to evaluate an economy in times of massive infections and contagious diseases. The IMICDE-Simulator is based on seven basic indicators – (i) the massive infections and diseases contagious spread intensity (cidc), (ii) the level of treatment and prevention level (ηtp); (iii) the massive infections and diseases infected causalities (-Lidc); (iv) the economic wear from massive infections and diseases contagious (Πidc); (v) the level of the massive infections and diseases contagious multiplier (Midc); (vi) the total economic leaking from massive infections and diseases contagious (Lidc-total); and (vii) the economic desgrowth from massive infections and diseases contagious (-δidc). To illustrate and illuminate the IMICDE-Simulator, we apply the simulator to the case of Wuhan coronavirus. The model investigates the uncertainty and behavioral change under a new perspective within the framework of a dynamic imbalanced state (DIS) (Ruiz Estrada & Yap, 2013) and the Omnia Mobilis assumption (Ruiz Estrada, 2011).
1.3 Objective Of The Study
The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of coronavirus (corvid-19) on the Nigerian economy. Specifically this study seeks to:
- Offer an overview of the massive infections and contagious diseases in China
- Give an overview of the Nigerian economy over the years
- Determine the effect of the novel cororonavirus on the financial market
- Determine the effect of the virus outbreak on the GDP
1.4 Significance Of The Study
The COVID-19 virus affects different people in different ways. COVID-19 is a respiratory disease and most infected people will develop mild to moderate symptoms and recover without requiring special treatment. People who have underlying medical conditions and those over 60 years old have a higher risk of developing severe disease and death.
This study will impact the effect of the 2019 novel coronavirus pandemic on the economy of Nigeria state and the factors associated with knowledge of coronavirus.
1.5 Research Question
What is the relationship between coronavirus prevalence and economic growth?
What is the effect of coronavirus mortality rate on economic growth?
1.6 Hypothesis of the study
Ho: there is no significant relationship between coronavirus prevalence and economic growth
H1: there is significant relationship between coronavirus prevalence and economic growth
1.7 Limitation of the Study
This work was carefully researched, but due to financial problem and power failure, the work could not go the way I planed. This work will serve as a basis for those that will carry out further research
FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS: Financial constraints tend to impede the students ability to get all the materials needed for the study but with the materials available the researcher was able to get meaningful information concerning the research topic above
TIME CONSTRAINTS: The researcher being a student will be involved with departmental activities like seminar presentation and attendance to class, but the researcher was able to meet up with the time allocated for the completion of the research work.
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